The 2025 AFL season has thrown up its share of surprises, but a handful of clubs have emerged as genuine contenders. From Adelaide’s rise to Geelong’s consistency and Brisbane’s firepower, the race for the flag is finely balanced heading into September.
Why ladder position matters
If you’re weighing up who can win the flag, the ladder is your first clue. The history of the AFL tells you that a top-four finish is almost essential, with only one premier since 2000 coming from outside those spots. The exception was the Western Bulldogs in 2016, who pulled off a famous run from seventh place to win four consecutive finals and claim the flag.
That’s why the build-up to finals is so compelling. Nothing is guaranteed, and results can swing on small margins. So while you’ll find a thorough analysis here, it’s worth remembering that sport always carries an element of chance.
Ultimately, wagering should be viewed as entertainment. Whether it’s following AFL odds, spinning free slots or trying another format, the principle is the same: keep it fun and engaging.
With that in mind, attention now turns to the race for the 2025 AFL Premiership. Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane have put themselves in strong positions, while Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS are close enough to challenge. It shapes as a six-team contest where momentum could decide who climbs the podium at the MCG.
Adelaide Crows: the new powerhouse
Adelaide’s rise has been one of the season’s defining stories. They’ve not only broken long-standing hoodoos against traditional rivals but also built a squad that looks balanced across the ground. The Crows’ ability to fight back from deficits shows resilience, while their scoring spread makes them dangerous in any situation.
If they secure top spot, home-finals advantage could be decisive. Make no mistake, Adelaide have the look of a team capable of going all the way.
Geelong Cats: proven contenders
You know what you get with Geelong: discipline, consistency and a knack for finding new ways to win. Even when star forwards like Jeremy Cameron are kept quiet, others such as Shannon Neale step up. Their depth across the field means the Cats are rarely reliant on individuals, which gives them the flexibility to adapt and the experience to handle September pressure.
Brisbane Lions: the firepower threat
Brisbane’s brand of football has made them one of the most watchable sides this year. Their ability to rack up big scores gives them a chance against anyone, though injuries have tested their depth. Importantly, they have coped well with the pressure of defending a premiership, staying competitive at the top end of the ladder when many expected a drop-off.
If they secure a double chance, their forward line can do the rest. The question is whether their defence holds firm under finals heat. If it does, you will see Brisbane right there on the last Saturday in September.
Collingwood Magpies: down but not out
Collingwood began the season facing questions about whether their ageing list could still compete at the top level. The club had prioritised immediate success over long-term rebuilding, assembling a side capable of winning today rather than next year. A 52-point thumping at the hands of GWS on opening day appeared to confirm those fears, but the Magpies responded emphatically by climbing to the top of the ladder during the middle of the year.
A late-season wobble has seen them slip back into fourth, yet their experience and ability in tight games mean you cannot dismiss them. If they steady in September, Collingwood have the big-game players to make a deep run.
Hawthorn Hawks: the dark horses
Hawthorn’s resurgence has been one of the feel-good stories of 2025. Jack Gunston’s renaissance in front of goal, combined with the development of young talent, has pushed them back into relevance.
They’re not in the top tier of betting odds, but history tells you teams with form and confidence can punch above their weight in September. If Hawthorn’s veterans keep producing, they could spring a surprise.
GWS Giants: outsiders with momentum
GWS may not have the profile of Geelong or Collingwood, but they have built quietly and consistently. Their record suggests they are more than capable of matching it with the top teams. Finals pressure is, of course, a different story, as shown in 2024 when they slipped up against Brisbane at a point in the semi-final when winning looked easier than losing. Even so, their trajectory this season makes them an interesting outsider.
For you as a follower of the season, keeping an eye on the Giants is smart. They could be this year’s story that few saw coming.
The likely outcome
Looking at the whole season, the 2025 premiership will almost certainly come from Adelaide, Geelong or Brisbane. All three have the depth, consistency and crucially, momentum to carry them to the MCG on Grand Final Day.
Collingwood’s experience, Hawthorn’s resurgence and GWS’s grit mean you can’t ignore them completely, but the odds and ladder point firmly towards the top three.
For you, that means keeping an eye on whether Adelaide hold top spot, whether Geelong’s balance continues to shine, and whether Brisbane’s attack can overwhelm opponents when it matters most.
While only time will tell, the 2025 AFL season is poised to deliver a thrilling finish, and the flag remains firmly up for grabs.
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